Which term describes the belief that if something currently happens more frequently than normal, it is less likely to happen in the future?

• A. Illusion of independent events
• B. Law of random events
• C. Gambler's fallacy
• D. Illusion of control

Answer: (C)

Gambler's fallacy is the belief that when a chance process has produced a string of outcomes more often than usual, a reversal is due and the less frequent outcome becomes likelier next. This idea hinges on the mistaken notion that short-term streaks must balance out in the near term, even though each trial is independent and has the same probabilities every time. For example, after many heads in a row, someone might expect tails to appear soon, even though the chance of heads or tails on the next flip is still 50/50.

Understanding this helps avoid misreading randomness as if past results "drain" probability or influence future trials. The other terms describe different ideas: the illusion of independent events would involve misperceiving how independent outcomes relate to each other; the law of random events is a general probabilistic principle, not a bias; and illusion of control is thinking you can influence random outcomes. The described belief aligns best with the gambler's fallacy.